Official Neon Movie Bunker 97th Academy Award Predictions:
The 1977 film THE TURNING POINT and the 1985 production of THE COLOR PURPLE share a link of dubious distinction: each was nominated for 11 Academy Awards and, on the night the awards were distributed, each went home completely empty-handed. Their zero wins against 11 nominations stand as the high (low?) water mark for Oscar futility. I bring this up not to twist knives, but because I have a suspicion itching around the back of my head that their record might fall this year.
EMILIA PÉREZ is nominated 13 awards across 12 categories this year: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actress, International Feature, Cinematography, Editing, Makeup & Hairstyling, Sound, Score, and two Songs. With one prominent exception (which we’ll get to below) there is at least one (if not several) better choices than EMILIA PÉREZ in each category, which means the possibility of a new record being set tonight is definitely in play.
Welcome to my prediction post for the 97th Academy Awards!
A quick note: The “Should Win” listings might also be interpreted as “If I had a vote, it’d be for”. The “Where’s” are performances/works that should’ve been nominated. And I skipped the Shorts. Such is life.
Best Supporting Actor:
WILL WIN: Kieran Culkin, A REAL PAIN
SHOULD WIN: Kieran Culkin, A REAL PAIN
IF HE WINS, I’LL BE MAD: N/A. All good choices.
WHERE’S: John Magaro, SEPTEMBER 5
Best Supporting Actress:
WILL WIN: Zoe Saldaña, EMILIA PÉREZ
SHOULD WIN: Isabella Rossellini, CONCLAVE
IF SHE WINS, I’LL BE MAD: Zoe Saldaña, EMILIA PÉREZ
WHERE’S: Margaret Qualley, THE SUBSTANCE
Best Animated Feature:
WILL WIN: THE WILD ROBOT
SHOULD WIN: INSIDE OUT 2
IF THIS WINS, I’LL BE MAD: FLOW
WHERE’S: I dunno, TRANSFORMERS ONE, I guess?
Best International Feature:
WILL WIN: I’M STILL HERE
SHOULD WIN: I’M STILL HERE
IF THIS WINS, I’LL BE MAD: EMILIA PÉREZ
WHERE’S: KNEECAP
Best Film Editing:
WILL WIN: CONCLAVE
SHOULD WIN: CONCLAVE
IF WINS, I’LL BE MAD: EMILIA PÉREZ
WHERE’S: THE SUBSTANCE
Best Cinematography:
WILL WIN: THE BRUTALIST
SHOULD WIN: NOSFERATU
IF WINS, I’LL BE MAD: EMILIA PÉREZ
WHERE’S: NICKEL BOYS
Best Production Design:
WILL WIN: NOSFERATU
SHOULD WIN: NOSFERATU
IF THIS WINS, I’LL BE MAD: WICKED
WHERE’S: SEPTEMBER 5
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
WILL WIN: Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillion, and Marilyne Scarselli, THE SUBSTANCE
SHOULD WIN: Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillion, and Marilyne Scarselli, THE SUBSTANCE
IF THIS WINS, I’LL BE MAD: Literally anything else
WHERE’S: N/A
Best Costume Design:
WILL WIN: NOSFERATU
SHOULD WIN: NOSFERATU
IF THIS WINS, I’LL BE MAD: GLADIATOR II
WHERE’S: SATURDAY NIGHT
Best Visual Effects:
WILL WIN: DUNE: PART TWO
SHOULD WIN: ALIEN: ROMULUS
IF THIS WINS, I’LL BE MAD: KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
WHERE’S: DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Best Original Score:
WILL WIN: THE BRUTALIST
SHOULD WIN: CONCLAVE
IF THIS WINS, I’LL BE MAD: EMILIA PÉREZ
WHERE’S: CHALLENGERS
Best Original Song:
WILL WIN: “The Journey”, THE SIX TRIPLE EIGHT
SHOULD WIN: “The Journey”, THE SIX TRIPLE EIGHT
IF THIS WINS, I’LL BE MAD: Either of the EMILIA PÉREZ songs
WHERE’S: “Compress/Repress”, CHALLENGERS
Best Documentary Feature:
WILL WIN: NO OTHER LAND
SHOULD WIN: NO OTHER LAND
IF WINS, I’LL BE MAD: N/A
WHERE’S: SUPER/MAN: THE CHRISTOPHER REEVE STORY
Best Sound:
WILL WIN: DUNE: PART TWO
SHOULD WIN: THE WILD ROBOT
IF THIS WINS, I’LL BE MAD: EMILIA PÉREZ
WHERE’S: INSIDE OUT 2
Best Original Screenplay:
WILL WIN: ANORA
SHOULD WIN: THE SUBSTANCE
IF THIS WINS, I’LL BE MAD: THE BRUTALIST
WHERE’S: CHALLENGERS
Best Adapted Screenplay:
WILL WIN: CONCLAVE
SHOULD WIN: CONCLAVE
IF WINS, I’LL BE MAD: EMILIA PÉREZ
WHERE’S: NIGHTBITCH
Best Actor:
WILL WIN: Timothée Chalamet, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
SHOULD WIN: Ralph Fiennes, CONCLAVE
IF HE WINS, I’LL BE MAD: Adrien Brody, THE BRUTALIST
WHERE’S: Peter Sarsgaard, SEPTEMBER 5
Best Actress:
WILL WIN: Demi Moore, THE SUBSTANCE
SHOULD WIN: Demi Moore, THE SUBSTANCE
IF WINS, I’LL BE MAD: Karla Sofia Gascón, EMILIA PÉREZ
WHERE’S: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, HARD TRUTHS
Best Director:
WILL WIN: Sean Baker, ANORA
SHOULD WIN: Coralie Fargeat, THE SUBSTANCE
IF HE WINS, I’LL BE MAD: Jacques Audiard, EMILIA PÉREZ
WHERE’S: Edward Berger, CONCLAVE
Best Picture:
WILL WIN: ANORA
SHOULD WIN: ANORA
IF WINS, I’LL BE MAD: EMILIA PÉREZ
WHERE’S: SPETEMBER 5
My Best Picture ballot:
1 THE SUBSTANCE
2 ANORA
3 CONCLAVE
4 A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
5 NICKEL BOYS
6 I’M STILL HERE
7 WICKED
8 THE BRUTALIST
9 EMILIA PÉREZ
10 DUNE: PART TWO
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